We're well into Spring Training and the mighty Minnesota Twins currently have an 11-9 record. And that is damn near perfect!
What? Being a game over .500 is near-perfection? Yes it is.
I have a theory about Spring Training. I think you want your team to have a Spring Training record right around .500 because that's what you get when you're trying out new players.
Teams with really good Spring Training records do well in Spring Training because they lack enough new kids to fill out their roster. They're playing their regulars in a greater ratio than teams with better farm systems. So they're cleaning up in Spring Training against all the other teams' farm-system-laden rosters.
And the teams that do poorly in Spring Training? They're just stuck with minor league rosters who can't even compete against the farm-system-laden-but-not-dominated rosters.
An optimum ratio of regulars to kids results in a .500 performance in Spring Training. Doing better? That's because you don't have enough kids. Doing worse? That's because you don't have enough regulars.
So basically, by my theory, if you're in the top third of the standings in Spring Training, you'll be in the middle third during the season. If you're in the middle third in Spring Training, you'll be in the top third during the season. And if you suck in Spring Training, you'll suck all year.
(Of course, the Royals are 14-6 and are basically all new kids. Hey, it's the
half-assed guess sort of theory, not a scientific theory.)
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